Share
Twitter Linked In

Political Update

Election Outlook. Last week, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter raised its projection of House Republican gains from 10 to 20 seats to between 12 and 25 seats. As for the Senate, five races are in Cook’s toss-up category – three Democratic held seats (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada) and two Republican held seats (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).

Many analysts point to the outcomes in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania as key to which party will end up in the majority in the Senate. If Republicans win two of those three (and hold their other seats), they will control the Senate in the next Congress. Others predict that whichever party wins three of four races (add Ohio to the list) will be the majority party. If a runoff is needed in Georgia, the election will be Dec. 6.

2022 Polling. According to FiveThirtyEight, there is less polling of individual races this year than in previous midterms, and more of those polls are conducted by partisan pollsters or sponsored by partisan organizations. Also, fewer pollsters are conducting surveys – over the past six months or so, 150 different pollsters have surveyed Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections, down from roughly 190 in 2018.


Related News

12/4/23
Capitol Dome Grass Thumb Banner
Round-Up

PSW Weekly Round-Up - 12/4

Questions of the week: Will the Senate pass an aid package for Ukraine and Israel? Will negotiators finalize the details of the defense authorization bill?

Read More
11/27/23
Capitolnight Thumb Banner
Round-Up

PSW Weekly Round-Up - 11/27

The House and Senate are looking to adjourn for the year on Dec. 14 and 15, respectively, and have a full list of must-do measures on the agenda.

Read More
11/6/23
Thumb Als
Round-Up

PSW Weekly Round-Up - 11/6

House Republicans will meet Tuesday to discuss various options for the next Continuing Resolution.

Read More