PSW Weekly Round-Up - 11/10

Legislative Update

House. The House has been in recess since Sept. 19 but is planning to return as soon as Wednesday to vote on a continuing resolution (CR) that would re-open the government. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said today he would call members back to Washington once the Senate passes the CR but encouraged members to start making plans now to return, given disruptions in air travel. (The FAA reports that delays at Reagan Washington National Airport averaged four hours on Friday.)

Senate. Air travel played a role in Sunday night’s procedural vote to advance a new CR as the vote was not finalized until shortly before 11 p.m., when Senator John Cornyn (R-Tex.) arrived from Dulles Airport to cast the 60^th aye vote. The vote started at 8:30 p.m., and the final tally was 60-40. Crossing party lines, Republican Rand Paul (R-Ky.) voted no, while seven Democrats and one Independent voted aye – Senators Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Angus King (I-Maine).

Last night’s vote, which was to limit debate on the motion to proceed to the House-passed CR, was only the first step before the Senate can vote on passage of its revised version. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) negotiated throughout the day to reach an agreement on procedural and amendment votes and was able to clear the way for a final vote tonight. There will be eight votes in the series, including on an amendment to be offered by Senator Paul, who wants to strip a provision from the Agriculture appropriations bill that would prevent the unregulated sale of intoxicating hemp-based products. There will also be a vote on a Democratic proposal to extend enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies for one year.

Senate CR. Once the Senate disposes of the first five votes in the series, Senators will vote on a substitute amendment by Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine). The substitute has four key components: It will include a minibus with three full-year appropriations bills – Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and Legislative Branch; it will provide funding through Jan. 30 for programs not covered by those three appropriations bills; it will prohibit the Administration from initiating any “reductions in force,” i.e., layoffs, through January 30; and it will require that federal workers who were laid off during the shutdown be reinstated and given back pay.

Because the new CR will include the Agriculture and Veterans Affairs FY 2026 appropriations bill, SNAP (food stamps), the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) nutrition program, and veterans’ health care programs will be funded through Sept. 30, 2026. The CR will also extend through Sept. 30, 2026 farm bill authorizations that expired on Sept. 30, 2025. A number of health care programs will be extended through Jan. 30.

The substitute amendment does not address the issue that Democrats have pushed to the forefront, i.e., the Dec. 31 expiration of enhanced subsidies for Obamacare premiums. However, Thune has promised that the Senate will vote no later than the second week in December on a Democratic proposal to extend the subsidies. Speaker Johnson has not made any similar commitment. Johnson said today he’s eyeing a House vote on a Senate-passed CR as soon as Wednesday, which will now be possible if the Senate holds to its plan to vote tonight on final passage. While a handful of House Democrats may support the measure, Johnson may need President Trump to convince any wavering Republicans to get on board in order to pass the proposal.

Tariff Update

China. Under the recent agreement between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, China is removing two sets of retaliatory tariffs, effective today. One targets numerous U.S. agricultural products and another imposes a 34% levy on all U.S. goods. While the 34% tariff will be suspended for one year, China will leave in place a 10% retaliatory rate.

Recent Executive Action of Note

On Nov. 4, President Trump issued two Executive Orders related to tariffs on imports from China. The first EO is in response to China’s commitments to eliminate controls on rare earth minerals, to purchase U.S. soybeans, and to end its investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain. The EO suspends the U.S.’s heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods until Nov. 10, 2026 but maintains the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff through that date. The second EO, which is in response to China’s pledge to end the flow of fentanyl to the U.S., reduces a 20% tariff to 10%, effective Nov. 10, 2025.

• Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates Consistent With The Economic And Trade Arrangement Between The United States And The People’s Republic Of China - Nov. 4, 2025
• Modifying Duties Addressing The Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain In The People’s Republic Of China - Nov. 4, 2025

Political Update

Texas Special Election. As expected, a runoff will be needed to determine who will fill the seat of the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Tex.), who died in March. The top two vote-getters in the 16-member field were Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards. Menefee currently serves as Harris County attorney and Edwards is a former Houston City Council member. Since neither received more than 50% of the vote in the 18^th Congressional District race, they will face each other in a runoff, with the date yet to be set by the governor.

www.psw-inc.com