PSW Weekly Round-Up - 11/7

PSW has prepared a 2022 General Election Tracker that we will be updating in real time on Election Night. The tracker has tabs for key House and Senate races. Each of these sheets includes the Cook Political Report’s latest ratings for the individual races and Cook’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI), a measurement of how strongly a congressional seat leans toward the Democratic or Republican candidate compared to the nation as a whole.

Congressional Update

House. House Republicans have announced their schedule for organizing meetings for the 118^th Congress. On Monday, Nov. 14, they will hold a leadership candidate forum, and the following day, Republicans who have been elected to serve in the next Congress will meet to choose their leaders. On Nov. 16, the schedule calls for votes on proposals to amend and approve the rules of the House Republican Conference as well as ratification of the Steering Committee structure.

Nov. 18 will round out the week with regional elections for the Steering and Policy Committee, the panel that, in effect, decides committee assignments for House Republican members and GOP leaders of many House committees. Technically, the Steering and Policy Committee recommends the chairs or ranking members and membership of the House’s standing committees for the approval of the full Republican Conference.

Democrats have not announced when they will hold their leadership elections, but they are likely to take place after Thanksgiving.

Senate. In addition to the turnover the Senate will see as the result of Tuesday’s elections, there will also be a new member next year from Nebraska. Republican Senator Ben Sasse, who is not up for re-election this year, was selected by the University of Florida trustees on Nov. 1 to serve as the school’s next president. The Florida Board of Governors will meet Nov. 10 to confirm the selection.

Given the 50-50 split in the Senate, Sasse is not expected to resign his seat until Congress adjourns in December. It will be up to Nebraska’s governor to appoint a replacement, who will serve until 2024, but the question is, “Which governor will that be?” Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is the current governor and has said he will not appoint himself. However, there will be a new governor on Jan. 3 since Ricketts was term-limited out of office, and the speculation is that the new governor, who is likely to be a Republican, will appoint Ricketts.

Political Update

Early Voting. According to the U.S. Elections Project, almost 41 million ballots have been submitted as of this morning. The total surpasses the 39.1 million cast in the 2018 midterm elections. In 2018, early voting, either by mail or in person, accounted for about 40% of the total vote, up from 31% in the 2014 midterms.

Election Results. The New York Times today took a look at when races might be called after votes are cast tomorrow. Their review included seven states with Senate races that are particularly close:

• Arizona. Polls Close: 9 p.m. ET. Senator Mark Kelley (D) vs. Blake Masters (R)
  • No results are released until 10 p.m. ET. Early voting ballots – cast either by mail, in-person, or drop box, require the verification of voters’ signatures. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their early voting ballots at the last minute.

• Georgia. Polls Close: 7 p.m. ET. Senator Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)
  • If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff on Dec. 6. Chase Oliver, a Libertarian, is also on the ballot.

• Nevada. Polls Close: 10 p.m. ET. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Adam Laxalt (R)
  • Nevada conducts a predominantly mail-ballot election, and while ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, they now have four days to arrive (until Nov. 12), instead of the seven days allowed in 2020.

• New Hampshire. Polls Close: 8 p.m. ET. Senator Maggie Hassan (D) vs. Don Bolduc (R)
  • Officials expect full unofficial results to be announced by Wednesday.

• Ohio. Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. ET. Rep. Tim Ryan (D) vs. J.D. Vance (R)
  • Mail ballots must be postmarked by the day before the election and have 10 days to arrive.

• Pennsylvania. Polls Close: 8 p.m. ET. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R)
  • Officials are not permitted to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day, so it could take several days for full unofficial results to be available.

• Wisconsin. Polls Close: 9 p.m. ET. Senator Ron Johnson (R) vs. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D)
  • Officials cannot begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, and vote counting may take until the morning after the election.